Front Runners highlights the drivers that lead laps, run fast laps, and run inside the top 10, 5, & 3 the most at correlated track types. If you want a more detailed overview of how the data in Front Runners is organized and what it means, check out this Front Runners Tutorial Video. There is also a short written overview below.
Track Overview
This week NASCAR makes it first of two trips in 2024 to Phoenix Raceway. In 2024 NASCAR will make six trips to “short flat” tracks. Phoenix is the first for these stops. Phoenix is a mile-long tri-oval track. The turns at Phoenix have just 8-11 degrees of banking. The front and backstretch are banked at just 3 degrees.
The other comparable tracks to Phoenix are Richmond Raceway, New Hampshire Motor Speedway, and new to the Cup Series for 2024, Iowa Speedway. Richmond and Iowa are both D-shaped ovals. Iowa is closer in length to Phoenix at 7/8 of a mile, while Richmond is just 3/4 of a mile long. New Hampshire is another mile long track, but it is a true oval. Ultimately each of the tracks has its own quirks, but historically drivers who have performed at Richmond or New Hampshire have also done well at Phoenix.
Of note, Martinsville is not a true comparable track to any of the other short flat tracks. At just 1/2 a mile in length the track is significantly shorter than the other four venues. The unique surface of Martinsville, with asphalt on the straightaways and concrete in the turns, also distinguishes Martinsville from the other tracks. As such, while we may look to the other short flats to help fill in some data gaps at Martinsville, we typically don’t use Martinsville the other way around to project Phoenix or the other short flat tracks.
Datasets for Front Runners
This week we are back to two datasets. The first is the five races in 2023 at Phoenix, Richmond, and New Hampshire. The second is all ten races in the Gen 7 car at these tracks across 2022 and 2023.
Drivers who have no starts at the selected tracks over the relevant time period are omitted from the tables below. This means that for both data sets Derek Kraus, John H. Nemecheck, and Kaz Grala (assumed in the 15) do not appear. For the 2023 only data set this also means Daniel Hemric has no relevant races.
Front Runners Breakdown
The charts below are sorted by percentage of laps led by default. There are also a few more columns that you can choose to display but for ease of display those columns are hidden by default. First, some notes on the data:
- How percentages are calculated:
- For laps in the Top 10, 5, 3, and led, the calculation is laps that driver completed in those positions divided by laps that driver has completed.
- For fastest laps the calculation is fast laps recorded by the driver divided by all fast laps in the data set. Unfortunately its just super complicated to calculate how many fast laps were available while the driver was still running.
- For laps run the calculation is laps completed by the driver divided by all laps possible in the data set.
- Average running position is weighted by how much of a race the driver completed. So a driver completing 50% of one race with an average running position of 5 and 100% of a second race with an average running position of 15, will have a calculated average running position of 11.67, not 10, because the second race has twice as much weight.
- Fin-Start takes the average finishing position of a driver and subtracts the driver’s average starting position from it. Negative numbers mean a driver has improved from the start, positive numbers mean the driver’s finishing position is worse than their starting position.
- Fin-ARP take the the average finishing position of a driver and subtracts the driver’s average running position from it. As with Fin-Start, negative numbers show finishes better than average running position, while positive numbers show finishes worse than the driver’s average running position. In effect, positive numbers mean a driver has been unlucky, negative numbers suggest a driver has been lucky.
Phoenix, Richmond, and New Hampshire in 2023
Phoenix, Richmond, and New Hampshire in 2022 and 2023
Front Runners are great to compare with our other Advanced Analytics. Check out our Pre-Practice/Qualifying Ranks, and Sim Center as well!
Thank you all for taking the time to look at this. Let’s WIN THE RACE !
