SPEED READ – XFINITY SERIES AT LAS VEGAS

The Speed Read is your rapid-fire, stat-backed snapshot of every driver — before they hit the track. All data presented in this SPEED READ is sourced directly from our SIM FMV 20,000-race simulations, Pre-Practice/Qualifying Scores, Comparable Track True Performance metrics, and Current Season Front Runners data — all specific to this week’s track type or rules package.

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SPEED READ

All data presented in this SPEED READ is sourced directly from our SIM FMV 20,000-race simulations, Pre-Practice/Qualifying Scores, Comparable Track True Performance metrics, and Current Season Front Runners data — all specific to this week’s track type or rules package.

🔥 Race-Winning Threats

These drivers combine elite win probability with standout speed and proven results on similar tracks. If the race runs clean, expect one of them in Victory Lane.

🟩 Justin Allgaier, #7, JR Motorsports

⭐ Best Stat: 1st in True Performance at Texas (2025)

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 70.9% (-243); Top 5 chance: 52.9% (-112); Top 3 chance: 42.8% (+134)
  • From True Performance Scores on Comparable Tracks: 1st at Charlotte (2025), 1st at Darlington (2025), 5th at Homestead (2025), 1st at Kansas (2025), 1st at Las Vegas (2025), 1st at Texas (2025)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 85.3% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 21.2% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 5.35 in this package (14 races used)

🟩 Connor Zilisch, #88, JR Motorsports

⭐ Best Stat: 3rd in True Performance at Las Vegas (2025)

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 79.4% (-386); Top 5 chance: 57.9% (-138); Top 3 chance: 44.2% (+126)
  • From True Performance Scores on Comparable Tracks: 4th at Charlotte (2025), 8th at Homestead (2025), 3rd at Kansas (2025), 3rd at Las Vegas (2025)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 82.4% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 10.9% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 5.88 in this package (13 races used)

🟩 Aric Almirola, #19, Joe Gibbs Racing

⭐ Best Stat: 1st in % of Laps Inside Top 10 (2025)

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 69.8% (-232); Top 5 chance: 46.2% (+117); Top 3 chance: 32.4% (+209)
  • From True Performance Scores on Comparable Tracks: 2nd at Las Vegas (2025)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 98.2% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 5.5% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 3.95 in this package (6 races used)

📈 Podium Upside Picks

Solid top-five threats with enough firepower to win if things fall their way. Not quite top-tier, but strong bets for podium finishes and betting value.

🟩 Austin Hill, #21, Richard Childress Racing

⭐ Best Stat: 3rd in True Performance at Texas (2025)

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 64.4% (-181); Top 5 chance: 38.3% (+161); Top 3 chance: 22.8% (+339)
  • From True Performance Scores on Comparable Tracks: 4th at Homestead (2025), 5th at Kansas (2025), 4th at Las Vegas (2025), 3rd at Texas (2025)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 46.9% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 2.8% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 12.24 in this package (14 races used)

🟩 Sheldon Creed, #0, Haas Factory Team

⭐ Best Stat: 3rd in True Performance at Homestead (2025)

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 59.8% (-149); Top 5 chance: 33.3% (+200); Top 3 chance: 20.1% (+397)
  • From True Performance Scores on Comparable Tracks: 3rd at Charlotte (2025), 9th at Darlington (2025), 3rd at Homestead (2025), 7th at Kansas (2025), 6th at Texas (2025)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 66.4% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 3.4% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 9.66 in this package (14 races used)

🟩 Brandon Jones, #20, Joe Gibbs Racing

⭐ Best Stat: 2nd in True Performance at Kansas (2025)

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 59.6% (-148); Top 5 chance: 36.1% (+177); Top 3 chance: 23.0% (+335)
  • From True Performance Scores on Comparable Tracks: 7th at Charlotte (2025), 2nd at Darlington (2025), 2nd at Kansas (2025), 7th at Texas (2025)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 69.0% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 5.8% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 8.75 in this package (14 races used)

⚔️ Top-10 Capable Contenders

These drivers consistently show speed to land inside the top 10. They may not dominate, but they offer stability — and upside if the front-runners falter.

🟩 Sam Mayer, #41, Haas Factory Team

⭐ Best Stat: 2nd in True Performance at Homestead (2025)

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 54.8% (-121); Top 5 chance: 31.9% (+214); Top 3 chance: 18.0% (+456)
  • From True Performance Scores on Comparable Tracks: 6th at Charlotte (2025), 2nd at Homestead (2025), 10th at Kansas (2025), 7th at Las Vegas (2025), 5th at Texas (2025)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 73.9% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 6.0% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 8.12 in this package (14 races used)

🟩 Jesse Love, #2, Richard Childress Racing

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 60.0% (-150); Top 5 chance: 30.9% (+223); Top 3 chance: 17.4% (+476)
  • From True Performance Scores on Comparable Tracks: 8th at Darlington (2025), 7th at Homestead (2025), 8th at Kansas (2025), 6th at Las Vegas (2025)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 68.7% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 4.3% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 8.85 in this package (14 races used)

🟩 Sammy Smith, #8, JR Motorsports

⭐ Best Stat: 4th in True Performance at Kansas (2025)

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 62.0% (-163); Top 5 chance: 33.7% (+197); Top 3 chance: 19.2% (+422)
  • From True Performance Scores on Comparable Tracks: 9th at Homestead (2025), 4th at Kansas (2025), 9th at Las Vegas (2025)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 51.0% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 2.4% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 11.52 in this package (14 races used)

🟩 Daniel Hemric, #11, Kaulig Racing

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 47.7% (+110); Top 5 chance: 21.1% (+373); Top 3 chance: 11.0% (+810)
  • From True Performance Scores on Comparable Tracks: No top-20 true performance scores on comparable tracks this season.
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 23.1% of his laps inside the top 10; True Average Running Position of 12.24 in this package (1 race used)

🟩 Taylor Gray, #54, Joe Gibbs Racing

⭐ Best Stat: 5th in True Performance at Las Vegas (2025)

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 50.1% (-101); Top 5 chance: 23.7% (+322); Top 3 chance: 11.5% (+771)
  • From True Performance Scores on Comparable Tracks: 5th at Charlotte (2025), 6th at Kansas (2025), 5th at Las Vegas (2025), 9th at Texas (2025)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 53.8% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 3.2% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 10.73 in this package (14 races used)

🟩 Ryan Sieg, #39, RSS Racing

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 40.8% (+145); Top 5 chance: 15.8% (+532); Top 3 chance: 7.4% (+1251)
  • From True Performance Scores on Comparable Tracks: 10th at Charlotte (2025), 10th at Texas (2025)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 41.2% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 3.9% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 13.19 in this package (14 races used)

🚦 Potential Midfield Runners

Projected to settle mid-pack based on simulations and recent data. They’ll need breaks or strategy to move into the top 10.

🟩 Carson Kvapil, #1, JR Motorsports

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 39.9% (+151); Top 5 chance: 13.6% (+636); Top 3 chance: 5.7% (+1662)
  • From True Performance Scores on Comparable Tracks: 9th at Charlotte (2025), 7th at Darlington (2025), 8th at Las Vegas (2025)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 55.7% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 2.4% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 12.35 in this package (14 races used)

🟩 Christian Eckes, #16, Kaulig Racing

⭐ Best Stat: 4th in True Performance at Darlington (2025)

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 29.4% (+240); Top 5 chance: 11.2% (+796); Top 3 chance: 5.1% (+1876)
  • From True Performance Scores on Comparable Tracks: 4th at Darlington (2025)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 41.6% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 0.9% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 12.50 in this package (14 races used)

🟩 Harrison Burton, #25, AM Racing

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 38.6% (+159); Top 5 chance: 15.6% (+541); Top 3 chance: 7.1% (+1308)
  • From True Performance Scores on Comparable Tracks: 10th at Darlington (2025), 10th at Homestead (2025)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 22.0% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 0.8% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 16.07 in this package (14 races used)

🟩 Nicholas Sanchez, #48, Big Machine Racing

⭐ Best Stat: 4th in True Performance at Texas (2025)

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 26.6% (+276); Top 5 chance: 7.1% (+1316); Top 3 chance: 2.5% (+3908)
  • From True Performance Scores on Comparable Tracks: 8th at Charlotte (2025), 6th at Homestead (2025), 4th at Texas (2025)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 35.6% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 2.7% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 19.80 in this package (14 races used)

🟩 Trevor Bayne, #24, Sam Hunt Racing

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 18.9% (+428); Top 5 chance: 6.3% (+1490); Top 3 chance: 2.7% (+3624)

🟩 Corey Day, #17, Hendrick Motorsports

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 18.4% (+444); Top 5 chance: 3.0% (+3267); Top 3 chance: 0.8% (+13233)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 18.5% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 0.5% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 16.83 in this package (4 races used)

🟩 Daniel Dye, #10, Kaulig Racing

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 19.1% (+423); Top 5 chance: 4.7% (+2016); Top 3 chance: 1.7% (+5924)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 9.7% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 0.5% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 18.81 in this package (14 races used)

🟩 Kyle Sieg, #28, RSS Racing

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 18.8% (+431); Top 5 chance: 5.0% (+1904); Top 3 chance: 1.8% (+5550)
  • From True Performance Scores on Comparable Tracks: 10th at Las Vegas (2025)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 3.4% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 0.6% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 23.54 in this package (14 races used)

🟩 Dean Thompson, #26, Sam Hunt Racing

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 14.6% (+585); Top 5 chance: 3.0% (+3267); Top 3 chance: 0.8% (+12021)
  • From True Performance Scores on Comparable Tracks: 9th at Kansas (2025)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 14.2% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 0.7% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 17.97 in this package (14 races used)

🛠️ Searching for Speed

Some signs of performance, but not enough across the board. Would need major improvement from recent form to contend.

🟩 Jeb Burton, #27, Jordan Anderson Racing

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 10.4% (+860); Top 5 chance: 1.5% (+6372); Top 3 chance: 0.3% (+29312)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 10.9% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 1.3% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 18.81 in this package (14 races used)

🟩 William Sawalich, #18, Joe Gibbs Racing

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 12.3% (+714); Top 5 chance: 2.0% (+4925); Top 3 chance: 0.5% (+19317)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 39.0% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 1.6% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 15.65 in this package (14 races used)

🟩 Matt DiBenedetto, #99, Viking Motorsports

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 7.2% (+1287); Top 5 chance: 1.2% (+8130); Top 3 chance: 0.3% (+30203)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 3.9% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 0.4% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 20.39 in this package (14 races used)

🟩 Brennan Poole, #44, Alpha Prime Racing

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 9.1% (+998); Top 5 chance: 1.6% (+5979); Top 3 chance: 0.4% (+22889)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 6.4% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 0.3% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 19.92 in this package (14 races used)

🟩 Parker Retzlaff, #4, Alpha Prime Racing

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 9.8% (+919); Top 5 chance: 1.9% (+5122); Top 3 chance: 0.6% (+17918)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 8.3% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 0.1% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 20.66 in this package (14 races used)

🟩 Anthony Alfredo, #42, Young’s Motorsports

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 3.9% (+2474); Top 5 chance: 0.4% (+24900); Top 3 chance: 0.1% (+117547)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 4.0% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 0.1% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 21.02 in this package (14 races used)

💤 Off-the-Pace

Low win odds, minimal speed, and little support from current or past performance. Unlikely to be a factor barring chaos.

🟩 Jeremy Clements, #51, Jeremy Clements Racing

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 2.8% (+3491); Top 5 chance: 0.1% (+66567); Top 3 chance: 0.0% (+333233)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 5.1% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 0.4% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 21.88 in this package (14 races used)

🟩 Ryan Ellis, #71, DGM Racing x JIM

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 0.3% (+39116)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 0.4% of his laps inside the top 10; True Average Running Position of 27.32 in this package (14 races used)

🟩 Austin Green, #32, Jordan Anderson Racing

  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): True Average Running Position of 32.34 in this package (3 races used)

🟩 Thomas Annunziata, #70, Cope Family Racing

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 0.2% (+55456)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 0.1% of his laps inside the top 10; True Average Running Position of 26.39 in this package (4 races used)

🟩 Josh Williams, #91, DGM Racing x JIM

  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 2.7% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 0.1% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 22.73 in this package (11 races used)

🟩 Mason Massey, #45, Alpha Prime Racing

  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 0.1% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 0.1% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 28.04 in this package (8 races used)

🟩 Blaine Perkins, #31, Jordan Anderson Racing

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 0.2% (+43378)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 0.3% of his laps inside the top 10; True Average Running Position of 28.12 in this package (14 races used)

🟩 Nick Leitz, #7, SS GreenLight Racing

  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 29.3% of his laps inside the top 10; True Average Running Position of 18.11 in this package (7 races used)

🟩 Garrett Smithley, #14, SS GreenLight Racing

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 0.0% (+1999900)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 0.1% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 0.1% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 31.80 in this package (12 races used)

🟩 Joey Gase, #53, Joey Gase Motorsports

  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): True Average Running Position of 33.23 in this package (5 races used)

🟩 Mason Maggio, #35, Joey Gase Motorsports

From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): True Average Running Position of 31.13 in this package (4 races used)

Ryan Stevens

Founder & CEO of WIN THE RACE