SPEED READ – XFINITY SERIES AT KANSAS

The Speed Read is your rapid-fire, stat-backed snapshot of every driver — before they hit the track. All data presented in this SPEED READ is sourced directly from our SIM FMV 20,000-race simulations, Pre-Practice/Qualifying Scores, Comparable Track True Performance metrics, and Current Season Front Runners data — all specific to this week’s track type or rules package.

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SPEED READ

All data presented in this SPEED READ is sourced directly from our SIM FMV 20,000-race simulations, Pre-Practice/Qualifying Scores, Comparable Track True Performance metrics, and Current Season Front Runners data — all specific to this week’s track type or rules package.

🔥 Race-Winning Threats

These drivers combine elite win probability with standout speed and proven results on similar tracks. If the race runs clean, expect one of them in Victory Lane.

🟩 Justin Allgaier, #7, JR Motorsports

⭐ Best Stat: 1st in True Performance at Texas (2025)

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 78.8% (-373); Top 5 chance: 61.4% (-159); Top 3 chance: 51.2% (-105)
  • From True Performance Scores on Comparable Tracks: 1st at Charlotte (2025), 1st at Darlington (2025), 5th at Homestead (2025), 1st at Las Vegas (2025), 1st at Texas (2025)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 85.8% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 20.1% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 5.39 in this package (13 races used)

🟩 Connor Zilisch, #88, JR Motorsports

⭐ Best Stat: 2nd in % of Laps Inside Top 10 (2025)

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 76.7% (-329); Top 5 chance: 56.2% (-129); Top 3 chance: 44.8% (+123)
  • From True Performance Scores on Comparable Tracks: 4th at Charlotte (2025), 8th at Homestead (2025), 3rd at Las Vegas (2025)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 81.0% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 10.5% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 6.09 in this package (12 races used)

🟩 Brandon Jones, #20, Joe Gibbs Racing

⭐ Best Stat: 2nd in True Performance at Darlington (2025)

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 71.5% (-250); Top 5 chance: 48.2% (+107); Top 3 chance: 33.5% (+199)
  • From True Performance Scores on Comparable Tracks: 7th at Charlotte (2025), 2nd at Darlington (2025), 7th at Texas (2025)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 66.7% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 4.2% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 9.26 in this package (13 races used)

📈 Podium Upside Picks

Solid top-five threats with enough firepower to win if things fall their way. Not quite top-tier, but strong bets for podium finishes and betting value.

🟩 Sam Mayer, #41, Haas Factory Team

⭐ Best Stat: 2nd in True Performance at Homestead (2025)

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 62.8% (-169); Top 5 chance: 42.9% (+133); Top 3 chance: 27.6% (+263)
  • From True Performance Scores on Comparable Tracks: 6th at Charlotte (2025), 2nd at Homestead (2025), 7th at Las Vegas (2025), 5th at Texas (2025)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 73.6% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 6.3% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 8.24 in this package (13 races used)

🟩 Sheldon Creed, #0, Haas Factory Team

⭐ Best Stat: 3rd in True Performance at Homestead (2025)

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 59.4% (-146); Top 5 chance: 34.6% (+189); Top 3 chance: 20.7% (+383)
  • From True Performance Scores on Comparable Tracks: 3rd at Charlotte (2025), 9th at Darlington (2025), 3rd at Homestead (2025), 6th at Texas (2025)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 65.8% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 3.4% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 9.74 in this package (13 races used)

🟩 Austin Hill, #21, Richard Childress Racing

⭐ Best Stat: 3rd in True Performance at Texas (2025)

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 59.4% (-147); Top 5 chance: 35.2% (+184); Top 3 chance: 19.9% (+402)
  • From True Performance Scores on Comparable Tracks: 4th at Homestead (2025), 4th at Las Vegas (2025), 3rd at Texas (2025)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 43.7% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 2.9% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 12.67 in this package (13 races used)

⚔️ Top-10 Capable Contenders

These drivers consistently show speed to land inside the top 10. They may not dominate, but they offer stability — and upside if the front-runners falter.

🟩 Jesse Love, #2, Richard Childress Racing

⭐ Best Stat: 4th in % of Laps Inside Top 10 (2025)

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 59.5% (-147); Top 5 chance: 32.3% (+209); Top 3 chance: 18.3% (+445)
  • From True Performance Scores on Comparable Tracks: 8th at Darlington (2025), 7th at Homestead (2025), 6th at Las Vegas (2025)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 68.7% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 4.7% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 8.82 in this package (13 races used)

🟩 Taylor Gray, #54, Joe Gibbs Racing

⭐ Best Stat: 5th in True Performance at Las Vegas (2025)

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 50.8% (-103); Top 5 chance: 25.7% (+289); Top 3 chance: 12.5% (+698)
  • From True Performance Scores on Comparable Tracks: 5th at Charlotte (2025), 5th at Las Vegas (2025), 9th at Texas (2025)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 50.5% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 3.2% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 11.04 in this package (13 races used)

🟩 Ryan Sieg, #39, RSS Racing

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 41.2% (+143); Top 5 chance: 16.6% (+503); Top 3 chance: 7.6% (+1220)
  • From True Performance Scores on Comparable Tracks: 10th at Charlotte (2025), 10th at Texas (2025)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 44.0% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 4.2% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 12.87 in this package (13 races used)

🟩 Carson Kvapil, #1, JR Motorsports

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 49.2% (+103); Top 5 chance: 21.9% (+358); Top 3 chance: 11.0% (+806)
  • From True Performance Scores on Comparable Tracks: 9th at Charlotte (2025), 7th at Darlington (2025), 8th at Las Vegas (2025)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 59.9% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 2.5% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 11.99 in this package (13 races used)

🟩 Sammy Smith, #8, JR Motorsports

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 40.7% (+146); Top 5 chance: 16.9% (+493); Top 3 chance: 7.5% (+1239)
  • From True Performance Scores on Comparable Tracks: 9th at Homestead (2025), 9th at Las Vegas (2025)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 46.9% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 2.2% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 12.00 in this package (13 races used)

🟩 Christian Eckes, #16, Kaulig Racing

⭐ Best Stat: 4th in True Performance at Darlington (2025)

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 42.7% (+134); Top 5 chance: 17.0% (+489); Top 3 chance: 8.1% (+1129)
  • From True Performance Scores on Comparable Tracks: 4th at Darlington (2025)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 45.0% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 0.9% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 12.40 in this package (13 races used)

🚦 Potential Midfield Runners

Projected to settle mid-pack based on simulations and recent data. They’ll need breaks or strategy to move into the top 10.

🟩 Justin Bonsignore, #19, Joe Gibbs Racing

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 39.2% (+155); Top 5 chance: 18.9% (+430); Top 3 chance: 10.0% (+897)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 8.0% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 0.6% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 17.73 in this package (4 races used)

🟩 Nicholas Sanchez, #48, Big Machine Racing

⭐ Best Stat: 4th in True Performance at Texas (2025)

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 32.3% (+209); Top 5 chance: 11.0% (+809); Top 3 chance: 4.6% (+2074)
  • From True Performance Scores on Comparable Tracks: 8th at Charlotte (2025), 6th at Homestead (2025), 4th at Texas (2025)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 37.6% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 2.7% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 18.41 in this package (13 races used)

🟩 Rajah Caruth, #17, Hendrick Motorsports

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 38.3% (+161); Top 5 chance: 17.0% (+489); Top 3 chance: 8.1% (+1138)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): True Average Running Position of 20.71 in this package (1 race used)

🟩 Harrison Burton, #25, AM Racing

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 31.6% (+216); Top 5 chance: 11.0% (+811); Top 3 chance: 4.3% (+2245)
  • From True Performance Scores on Comparable Tracks: 10th at Darlington (2025), 10th at Homestead (2025)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 23.6% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 0.8% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 15.78 in this package (13 races used)

🟩 Jeb Burton, #27, Jordan Anderson Racing

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 18.3% (+447); Top 5 chance: 4.4% (+2168); Top 3 chance: 1.5% (+6773)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 11.8% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 1.0% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 17.71 in this package (13 races used)

🟩 William Sawalich, #18, Joe Gibbs Racing

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 27.6% (+262); Top 5 chance: 7.7% (+1191); Top 3 chance: 2.6% (+3746)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 41.2% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 1.7% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 15.83 in this package (13 races used)

🟩 Matt DiBenedetto, #99, Viking Motorsports

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 16.0% (+524); Top 5 chance: 3.6% (+2693); Top 3 chance: 1.0% (+9801)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 4.2% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 0.4% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 20.23 in this package (13 races used)

🟩 Parker Retzlaff, #4, Alpha Prime Racing

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 14.0% (+616); Top 5 chance: 2.9% (+3378); Top 3 chance: 0.9% (+11394)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 9.0% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 0.1% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 20.40 in this package (13 races used)

🟩 Brennan Poole, #44, Alpha Prime Racing

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 13.8% (+624); Top 5 chance: 2.9% (+3301); Top 3 chance: 1.0% (+10263)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 7.0% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 0.3% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 19.14 in this package (13 races used)

🛠️ Searching for Speed

Some signs of performance, but not enough across the board. Would need major improvement from recent form to contend.

🟩 Daniel Dye, #10, Kaulig Racing

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 14.5% (+588); Top 5 chance: 3.1% (+3121); Top 3 chance: 1.0% (+9704)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 9.2% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 0.5% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 18.87 in this package (13 races used)

🟩 Dean Thompson, #26, Sam Hunt Racing

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 13.4% (+648); Top 5 chance: 2.7% (+3597); Top 3 chance: 0.9% (+11596)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 11.5% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 0.7% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 18.50 in this package (13 races used)

🟩 Anthony Alfredo, #42, Young’s Motorsports

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 9.6% (+943); Top 5 chance: 1.5% (+6680); Top 3 chance: 0.4% (+24900)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 4.3% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 0.1% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 20.97 in this package (13 races used)

🟩 Kyle Sieg, #28, RSS Racing

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 10.3% (+867); Top 5 chance: 1.8% (+5425); Top 3 chance: 0.5% (+19317)
  • From True Performance Scores on Comparable Tracks: 10th at Las Vegas (2025)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 3.4% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 0.7% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 23.82 in this package (13 races used)

🟩 Brenden Queen, #11, Kaulig Racing

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 7.6% (+1215); Top 5 chance: 0.9% (+10711); Top 3 chance: 0.3% (+39116)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): True Average Running Position of 22.29 in this package (1 race used)

🟩 Jeremy Clements, #51, Jeremy Clements Racing

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 6.5% (+1442); Top 5 chance: 0.7% (+14938); Top 3 chance: 0.2% (+64416)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 5.5% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 0.4% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 21.19 in this package (13 races used)

🟩 Ryan Ellis, #71, DGM Racing x JIM

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 3.8% (+2501); Top 5 chance: 0.3% (+36937); Top 3 chance: 0.1% (+181718)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 0.5% of his laps inside the top 10; True Average Running Position of 27.05 in this package (13 races used)

🟩 Patrick Staropoli, #24, Sam Hunt Racing

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 4.1% (+2363); Top 5 chance: 0.3% (+30203); Top 3 chance: 0.1% (+181718)

💤 Off-the-Pace

Low win odds, minimal speed, and little support from current or past performance. Unlikely to be a factor barring chaos.

🟩 Austin Green, #32, Jordan Anderson Racing

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 0.8% (+12400); Top 5 chance: 0.0% (+333233); Top 3 chance: 0.0% (+1999900)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): True Average Running Position of 33.54 in this package (2 races used)

🟩 Leland Honeyman, #70, Cope Family Racing

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 1.8% (+5582); Top 5 chance: 0.1% (+124900); Top 3 chance: 0.0% (+1999900)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 2.5% of his laps inside the top 10; True Average Running Position of 26.60 in this package (9 races used)

🟩 Mason Massey, #45, Alpha Prime Racing

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 1.0% (+10209); Top 5 chance: 0.0% (+285614); Top 3 chance: 0.0% (+999900)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 0.2% of his laps inside the top 10; True Average Running Position of 27.64 in this package (7 races used)

🟩 Blaine Perkins, #31, Jordan Anderson Racing

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 2.3% (+4248); Top 5 chance: 0.2% (+43378); Top 3 chance: 0.1% (+181718)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 0.4% of his laps inside the top 10; True Average Running Position of 28.19 in this package (13 races used)

🟩 Kole Raz, #76, AM Racing

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 0.0% (+333233)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): True Average Running Position of 34.81 in this package (1 race used)

🟩 DGM Racing x JIM 91, #91, DGM Racing x JIM

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 0.1% (+95138)

🟩 Joey Gase, #53, Joey Gase Motorsports

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 0.0% (+249900)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 0.5% of his laps inside the top 10; True Average Running Position of 31.23 in this package (2 races used)

🟩 Garrett Smithley, #14, SS GreenLight Racing

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 0.2% (+55456); Top 5 chance: 0.0% (+999900); Top 3 chance: 0.0% (+1999900)
  • From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 0.1% of his laps inside the top 10; Logged fast laps on 0.1% of his total laps; True Average Running Position of 31.38 in this package (11 races used)

🟩 Joey Gase Motorsports 35, #35, Joey Gase Motorsports

  • From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 0.0% (+999900)

🟩 Nick Leitz, #7, SS GreenLight Racing

From True Performance + Front Runners Data (Current Season): Has run 30.5% of his laps inside the top 10; True Average Running Position of 18.70 in this package (6 races used)

From SIM FMV’s 20,000-Race Simulation Results: Top 10 chance: 0.1% (+71329)

Ryan Stevens

Founder & CEO of WIN THE RACE